American Football still needs to be more interested in betting many punters. Others are interested in it but need more to bet on.
It is a shame because intelligent betting on Stateside institutions can make money.
You’ll need to be familiar with the basics to get the most out of the sport. However, a quick online search will give you the information you need. You will be able to understand the game’s intricacies and better understand how to approach obscure markets. This game is both simple and complex.
We are going to have to teach you how to play American Football. Instead, we will explore the most lucrative markets and help you build a handsome bankroll.
Let’s get to it.
The basics of NFL Betting
American Football’s most popular bet is the Money Line. This is almost identical to the 1X2 market for football (soccer!) Without the draw. You might also see the following:
The Philadelphia Eagles are priced at 27/20 to win this match, and the Chicago Bears at 20/31.
This market is the easiest to target. We don’t care if our team wins by one or twenty points here. If they get the “W,” this is the best. This market is the most popular among newcomers to American Football betting, and it provides a solid foundation for future needs.
The handicap market, also known as The Spread, is next. This market offers two reimagined scorelines that are based on the +/- handicaps of each team. Here’s one example:
The spread is now three points. The Philadelphia Eagles have the +3 and Chicago Bears the -3. Both are available on 10/11.
To satisfy these requirements and win your wager, the Eagles must win or lose the match by at least one point. For our +3 on Bears to win, they would have to win the game by at least four points.
Spread market is an excellent way of adding more value to your slips in games where one side or the other is superior, but their outright price (Money Line) needs to be higher to be of any value.
We’ll look at Total Points as the third American Football betting type.
This is where we predict whether the match will be over or under the 42.5 total points mark. For our ‘overs” bet to succeed, we need 43 points in the contest. For punters in the “under” category, any point total under 42 will be a winner.
NFL Betting Strategies
With this information, punters are ready to make their first attempt at NFL betting. There is no right or wrong way to wager in any sport. However, using some common strategies to maximize your chances of winning makes sense.
Spread betting is an old strategy to wager on American Football and other similar sports. It taps into the mindset we have already described, namely that in most cases, one team is superior …. but how much?
This strategy can also be adapted to account for other factors such as weather, injuries, team selection, and weather. However, the fundamental principle is to give each team its own ‘power ranking’ so that #1 plays #12. You will know you can place your wager with confidence.
The question is, “We know Team A is superior to Team B, but how many points?” If you can answer this correctly, then the betting value should be…
Another strategy for NFL betting is to ignore team markets and focus on those that involve individual players. These include Touchdown Scorers (First and Anytime), Scorecasts, Total Passing Yards, Total Rushing Yards, Total Receiving Yards, etc. These markets require some knowledge of the sport but can be very lucrative if you work hard.
Quality gaps in the NFL are prevalent between franchises. These mismatches can lead to highly one-sided fixtures. It is easy to determine how large a gap there is between two teams by calculating their yards differentials (offensive yards/play minus defensive yards/play). This calculation shows how much time a couple spends on their front foot. The higher the differential, the better.
These data are easily accessible online, so it is easy to create your power rankings to determine if a handicap or money line is correctly priced. Using this metric, you can analyze where one team is underpriced/overpriced, given their yards-per-play ratio. You can even identify some under-priced underdogs – great skill punters of any sport possess.
Home Field Advantage
This is a common phenomenon across all sports and has been for decades. However, home-field advantage is a thing in the NFL and can influence your punting thinking.
The home team has won 57% of all NFL matches since 2002. This clearly shows that there is an advantage to betting on teams that play on home soil, despite the many other variables.
Betting blindly or wildly on home teams is not a winning strategy. However, in close-fought matches and covering spreads, ‘HFA should be considered.